The earthquake that struck Turkey and Syria is a human tragedy whose macabre count continues to grow. There is also an economic cost for the affected countries, in the short and long term…

Before the earthquake that just shook the region, Turkey had already been very hard hit in August 1999, in Izmit. At the time, the earthquake killed 17,000 people, including a thousand in Istanbul. Since then, Turkey has adopted anti-seismic standards, and rebuilt a lot. But the economy had been hit hard. At the time, the cost of the disaster had initially been estimated at 20 billion dollars. Between inflation and the delay before insurance payments, this figure had finally been reduced to between 3 and 6.5 billion dollars, and between 1.5% and 3.3% of lost GDP, according to an estimate by the Bank. world. More than 40% of Turkish industry had been impacted by the earthquake.

After the earthquake, black gold appreciates

For this earthquake, we already know that the oil sector is affected. The Turkish export terminal in Ceyhan is shut down while the damage is assessed and the weather conditions calm down. This export port is the end point of the BTC pipelines (Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan), which brings oil from Azerbaijan, and the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline, which connects Turkey to Iraqi Kurdistan. Ceyhan usually processes one million barrels per day. Its paralysis therefore plays on the price of black gold and comes on top of the reopening of the Chinese market.

What there is to know

Two powerful earthquakes hit southeastern Turkey on Monday: one of magnitude 7.8 in the middle of the night, the other of magnitude 7.5 at midday.

185 aftershocks were recorded between Monday and Tuesday morning by the USGS. In particular one of magnitude 5.4 at 8:11 a.m.

Cold temperatures, rain (even snow) and aftershocks complicate the situation.

A 7-day national mourning and a 3-month state of emergency have been announced.

In Turkey, the death toll currently stands at 6,957. In Syria, 2,547 have so far been identified, a provisional total of 9,504.

The WHO estimates that more than 20,000 deaths are to be feared, and that 23 million people are affected.